Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party is set to win an absolute majority in India’s election for a third consecutive time, several early Indian exit polls showed, extending another decade of his rule over the world’s fastest-growing major economy. Polls showed the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance would win far more than the 272 seats needed for a majority in the 543-seat lower house of India’s parliament. More exit polls are due to be released by Saturday evening, and the actual counting of votes will take place on June 4.
Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party have remained popular since he was first elected prime minister in 2014, running on a staunch Hindu-first platform and vowing to reverse the failures of previous governments by shifting from a rural to an industrial economy.
He promised to rein in deep-rooted corruption and turn the country into a manufacturing superpower by leveraging its manpower advantage. Campaigning this spring – the six-week election ends on Saturday – Modi vowed to make India’s economy the world’s third-largest, trailing only the United States and China. Votes will be counted on Tuesday.
Exit polls in India have a poor record, with analysts saying it is a challenge for them to accurately predict numbers in such a large and diverse country. In recent years they have generally predicted results correctly, but have underestimated the winner’s margin of victory.
All four exit polls have shown the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) winning more seats than the 352 it won in 2019, with pollster Republic PMARQ predicting it could win 359 seats, while the Bharat Bloc is on 154. The India News-D-Dynamics poll predicted 371 seats for the NDA and 125 for the Congress-led opposition alliance. It said other parties not affiliated with any bloc are likely to get 47 seats. The Bharat Bloc is unlikely to get more than 133 seats, the survey said.
Modi praised the initial exit poll results, saying they showed a victory for the BJP-led alliance. “I can say with confidence that the people of India have voted in record numbers to re-elect the NDA government,” he said in a post on social media platform X. He said the BJP’s track record continues to infuriate voters, especially the poor, and criticised the opposition alliance’s campaign for failing to provide a vision for the country.
| Republic TV-PMARQ | 359 | 118-133 |
| India News-D Dynamics | 371 | 125 |
| TV5 Telugu | 359 | 154 |
| Republic Bharat-Matrize | 353-368 | 118-133 |
| Jan Ki Baat | 362-392 | 114-161 |
If early trends hold, the results will boost Indian financial markets, which have been volatile in recent weeks amid speculation that the BJP and its allies will fail to achieve Modi’s ambitious target of winning 400 seats.
“Stable politics and policy is positive for the economy and markets,” said Teresa John, economist at Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt Ltd. “We expect fiscal consolidation to continue, with a focus on controlling inflation and keeping the cost of capital low.” The government’s focus on manufacturing and capital spending is also expected to continue, she said.
